Bremmer: US Tariffs Ease in 2026, India-US Trade Deal Near
Analyst Ian Bremmer says tariff tensions may fade in 2026, with a potential India-US trade deal taking shape in the first half of the year.
Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group, says the big tariff headlines of 2025 may fade in 2026 as policy focus shifts. Tariffs enacted or threatened last year drove up costs for manufacturers and importers, with groceries and other essentials potentially seeing price pressures as businesses pass along higher import levies. While the shift is not guaranteed, Bremmer notes the political and economic dynamics are moving toward relief, even as some sectors brace for volatility as midterm debates heat up.
He also points to a possible relief path through developments in the legal arena that could narrow the scope of broad tariff provisions, potentially easing the burden on consumers and small businesses. The legal debates and court outcomes are likely to influence how quickly any easing might land, but the overall trajectory, according to Bremmer, is toward a softer tariff environment this year.
On the broader geopolitical front, Bremmer predicts a major economic milestone: an India-US trade deal is likely to occur in the first half of the year. If realized, the deal would recalibrate supply chains and investment decisions across two of the world’s fastest-growing economies, even as negotiators navigate sensitive topics from digital trade to market access.
The analyst says policymakers should watch how domestic responses adapt to shifting tariffs and how lawmakers handle the political calculus around tariffs, prices, and consumer welfare. In short, 2026 could bring a more predictable price environment even as the global trade picture remains dynamic.
