Monsoon set to reach Kerala on May 26, IMD forecasts
Monsoon set to reach Kerala on May 26, IMD forecasts
IMD expects the southwest monsoon to enter Kerala on May 26, with normal onset around June 1 and rainfall likely in the days that follow.
The southwest monsoon is expected to advance into Kerala on May 26, the India Meteorological Department said. The normal date for the monsoon’s advent over the state is June 1, and this year the onset comes amid signals that the monsoon has already neared the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Bay of Bengal. From there, analysts note, it typically takes about 10 days to reach mainland India, though factors like a developing cyclone can influence timing.
IMD also highlighted that onset criteria are stringent, requiring rainfall, wind speed, and cloud cover thresholds across Kerala and parts of Karnataka. Once the monsoon begins, forecasters expect a period of significant rainfall for the following five days as the system consolidates its reach inland.
Last year, Kerala saw the onset on May 24—the earliest since 2009. IMD’s operational forecasts of the onset date over Kerala for 2005-2025 were accurate in all but 2015, when the onset fell outside the expected window. In a related note, forecasts indicate a potential new low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal that could influence the journey of the monsoon and bring thunderstorms to parts of Andhra Pradesh in the near term.
Experts emphasize that the date of onset does not directly determine rainfall totals, which depend on broader atmospheric conditions in the weeks that follow. Still, the seasonal forecast signals a wetter spell for Kerala and neighboring regions as the monsoon progresses toward mainland India.
