Nifty Tests Support Zone Amid Corrective Phase, Cautious Week Ahead

Nifty slipped into corrective consolidation as it tests a critical support zone, ending the week on a distinctly negative note. After an early attempt at a modest rebound, the index faced persistent selling at higher levels and drifted lower through the week. The broader range held between 25,771.45 on the upside and 25,141.30 on the downside, signaling a muted pullback rather than a sharp reversal. The India VIX cooled, dropping 4.60% to 13.70 on a weekly basis, reflecting a temporary easing in near-term anxiety. The Nifty closed the week down 392.60 points, a fall of 1.54%, underscoring the ongoing corrective bias.

On the weekly chart, Nifty remains above its long-term uptrend, hovering just above the 50-week moving average at 25,047, while staying comfortably above the 100-week (24,422) and 200-week (21,571) averages. However, the index is trading below the 20-week average of 25,756 and near the lower Bollinger Band at 25,065, highlighting short-term weakness. A sustained move above 25,800 would be needed to negate the current weakness and open the door for a directional upmove. Conversely, a decisive break below the 25,000–24,950 zone could invite further downside into nearby support levels.

Market participation showed a bifurcated picture. Energy, infra, and banking sectors outperformed, helping to limit steeper declines, while IT and midcaps lagged, signaling a tilt toward defensives amid the pullback. The looming Holi holiday on Tuesday, March 3, makes this a truncated week, likely to begin on a cautious note as traders adopt a do-nothing or risk-off stance until clarity returns.

Looking ahead, traders and investors are advised to balance risk with fundamentals. If the market sustains gains above the 25,800 mark, it could set the stage for a cautious recovery. However, a break below 25,000–24,950 could amplify volatility and push prices toward the next supports. In terms of strategy, analysts suggest favoring fundamentally strong large-cap names with stable earnings visibility in sectors like banking, healthcare, metals, pharma, and energy, while avoiding excessive leverage in a choppy, sentiment-driven environment.

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