Fears rise of new arms race as US-Russia treaty nears expiry
Fears rise of new arms race as US-Russia treaty nears expiry
As New START teeters on expiry, experts warn of a potential arms race as Washington and Moscow drift apart on deployed warheads and transparency.
The expiry of the New START treaty, which caps deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side, has raised fears of a new arms race. The agreement, signed in 2010, also established transparency measures like data transfers, notifications and on-site inspections that helped prevent misinterpretations of each other’s actions. The expiry could mark an end to the arms control co-operation that helped ease tensions dating back to the Cold War.
On Wednesday, Pope Leo urged the US and Russia to renew the treaty, saying the current world situation required "calls for doing everything possible to avert a new arms race". The pope’s appeal adds a moral dimension to a debate already heated among security officials and lawmakers about the pathway forward.
Historically, the treaty has served as a stabilizing mechanism, even though Russia suspended the agreement three years ago amid the Ukraine conflict. Observers say both sides were still largely abiding by its terms, but the expiry removes a formal framework for limits and verification.
If New START ends, the two biggest nuclear powers would lose a key channel for transparency and verification. This has sparked concerns about a potential rapid buildup and misread signals in a tense geopolitical environment. Other long-standing arms control treaties have already fallen by the wayside, such as the INF Treaty and the Open Skies Agreement, underscoring a broader shift away from formal caps.
Some lawmakers warn that the end of the treaty could lead to a dangerous and costly arms race, while others advocate pursuing a fresh agreement that preserves at least some of the verification mechanisms. In the meantime, analysts stress that diplomacy remains essential to prevent a destabilizing slide back into broad, uncontrolled nuclear competition.
