Market Guru Sees 2025 Challenges, Eyes 2026 Rebound
Market Guru Sees 2025 Challenges, Eyes 2026 Rebound
George Thomas charts a cautious 2025 for India's markets, backs valuation-focused SIPs, and favors gold over silver amid volatility.
India's equities scene in 2025 remains challenging, with weak earnings, a demand slowdown, and persistent FII outflows. The rupee has slipped to around ₹90.5–₹91 per US dollar, adding to macro headwinds. Amid this backdrop, momentum has shifted toward safe havens such as gold, while silver has staged a historic rally, crossing ₹2 lakh per kilogram at times.
In this environment, market veteran George Thomas of Quantum AMC offered a pragmatic, longer-term view: despite government steps like tax cuts and a staggered 125 basis point cut in policy rates, the market progressed at a slow pace.
For 2026, Thomas expects an earnings rebound from a low base, a revival in private capex, and valuations that should begin to attract fresh flows. He cites banks and insurance as beneficiaries of easing credit conditions and IT as a sector likely to benefit from a tech refresh cycle.
On allocations and strategy: He advises investors to continue Systematic Investment Plans in valuation-conscious funds and to be selective in small- and mid-cap names, where risk/reward is uneven.
Gold vs silver: He prefers gold with a 20% allocation as a diversification tool; silver, while potentially advantageous tactically due to its industrial demand dynamics and price momentum, carries more risk.
Rates are likely to stay stable in the medium term, and there could be a strong two-year upside for the Nifty as earnings recover and capital expenditure picks up.
He expects Quantum Value and Small Cap funds to be among the best performers if his macro and earnings calls materialize.
