Bihar Battlegrounds Could Flip the Poll Script as Results Arrive

As Bihar braces for Assembly results today, five battlegrounds—Tirhut, Mithilanchal and Kosi, Saran, Seemanchal, and Shahabad—could tilt the balance between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. In Seemanchal, a Muslim-majority stretch including Purnia, Katihar, Araria and Kishanganj, the Mahagathbandhan is counting on loyalty from its core base, but AIMIM’s return to the fray threatens to split the Muslim vote. Jan Suraaj’s Sarfaraz Alam could further complicate Jokihat, where his brother, RJD’s Shahnawaz Alam, sits as MLA. Tirhut, Bihar’s largest region with 49 seats, remains the NDA’s traditional stronghold, bolstered by its grip over East and West Champaran and a security stance shaped by a crackdown on cross-border crime. Mithilanchal and Kosi, covering 40 seats, may tilt toward the Mahagathbandhan, bolstered by a solid Yadav-Muslim base and the support of Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which could sway Nishad voters. But polarisation in Brahmin-Muslim mixed areas like Darbhanga and Madhubani could benefit the BJP. Shahabad, home to 22 seats across Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur and Buxar, was pivotal in the Mahagathbandhan’s 2020 surge; this time, both NDA and BSP are back with stronger challenges that could reverse or reinforce that trend. Saran, with 24 seats, remains fiercely contested, while Siwan sees BJP’s Mangal Pandey facing RJD veteran Awadh Bihari Chh. Counting day will reveal whether regional loyalties and candidate-level deltas shape the final tally. The coming hours are likely to set the tone for Bihar’s political narrative, with voters watching closely how these battlegrounds translate into the next government’s composition.

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