Middle East tensions risk UK living standards with energy price shock
Middle East tensions risk UK living standards with energy price shock
Thinktank warns a Middle East energy disruption could wipe out a £300 yearly boost to UK living standards, with lower-income households hit hardest.
Thinktank warns a Middle East energy disruption could wipe out a £300 yearly boost to UK living standards, with lower-income households hit hardest.
A leading UK thinktank has warned that a disruption to global oil and gas supplies linked to Middle East tensions could wipe out the anticipated rise in living standards for many households, erasing about £300 from a typical working-age household's annual gain.
The analysis suggests that even a modest lift in living standards this year could be reversed if energy costs spike due to disruption in supply through key routes tied to Iran. The UK is notably exposed because of its reliance on gas imports from the region, making it particularly vulnerable to any effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of the world’s LNG shipments.
Lower-income households could still see some gains, estimated at around £800 on average (about 3.9%), driven by the lifting of the two-child benefit cap and an above-inflation increase in universal credit. This would mark the second strongest year for improving living standards among poorer households in the past two decades.
To shield those most at risk, the thinktank recommends building the infrastructure for a targeted social tariff—focused on households with high energy needs and low income—rather than broad, across-the-board support, which it notes has been very costly in the past. The warning arrives as policymakers weigh energy security, household resilience, and fiscal choices in the face of ongoing tensions in the region.
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