IMD Warns of Below-Normal Monsoon for 2026 as El Niño Looms
IMD Warns of Below-Normal Monsoon for 2026 as El Niño Looms
IMD forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026 at 92% of LPA, with uneven regional relief and El Niño risks that could affect farming, rural demand, and prices.
India is likely to see a below-normal monsoon this year, with rainfall projected at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and an error margin of +/-5%. This forecast signals potential challenges for rain-fed farming and the broader rural economy as monsoon rains shape crop yields and rural demand.
The IMD’s spatial distribution indicates that the below-normal rainfall pattern is expected across many parts of the country, but some areas over the northeast, northwest and south Peninsular India may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The forecast carries significant economic implications. Agriculture ministry data show that 51% of India’s farmed area is rain-fed and accounts for about 40% of total agricultural production, while roughly 47% of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. A below-par monsoon could dampen rural consumption and push up food prices, a concern intensified by the broader regional energy and fertiliser supply risks linked to ongoing global tensions in West Asia.
Historically, the last time India experienced below-normal rainfall was in 2023, another El Niño year, when rainfall over the country as a whole was about 94% of its LPA. El Niño conditions are likely to establish during the monsoon season, especially in July, August and September. Presently, the country is transitioning from weak La Niña–like conditions toward ENSO-neutral conditions, with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions also noted. These atmospheric shifts add to the uncertainty around exact rainfall distribution and timing, underscoring the need for proactive planning by farmers and policymakers alike.
In summary, while some regions may buck the trend, the national monsoon outlook points to a below-normal rainfall scenario for 2026, with potential ripple effects across rural incomes, food prices and fertilizer availability. Timely policy support and adaptive farming practices will be crucial to cushion communities against an uneven rainfall season.
