White House Warns Staff Against Insider Bets in Prediction Markets
White House Warns Staff Against Insider Bets in Prediction Markets
A staff-wide email cautions federal employees about using non-public information to bet on platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket amid Iran-related tensions.
A staff-wide warning has been sent to White House employees cautioning against using insider information to place bets on prediction-market platforms. The guidance comes as such markets gained popularity, with wagers spanning a range of global events and policy decisions, including issues tied to Iran. The email was reportedly issued on March 24, just after public discussions of potential actions and a pause in earlier threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure.
Officials emphasised that federal employees are bound by government ethics rules that prohibit leveraging non-public information for financial gain. The guidance reiterates that any use of confidential information for market bets would violate these ethics standards, underscoring a line between public service duties and private speculation on world events.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn attention for their ability to reflect real-time expectations on geopolitical developments. While they attract broad participation, critics warn that timing bets on government moves could create conflicts of interest or raise concerns about information leakage, particularly during sensitive periods.
The episode arrives amid broader scrutiny of how information moves within government circles during periods of heightened international tension. By reinforcing ethics rules, officials aim to maintain public trust and ensure that policy decisions are guided by duty rather than potential financial incentives. The emphasis on responsible conduct comes as discussions about Iran-related policy and related markets continue to unfold at the highest levels.
