Strike on Iran Brings Half of India's Oil Imports at Hormuz Risk

A strike by the United States and Israel against Iran has raised fresh geopolitical worries over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that feeds a large portion of India’s crude needs. Data show that nearly 50% of India’s monthly crude imports transited Hormuz in January–February, up from 40% in November–December 2025. A blockade or prolonged disruption could affect as much as 2.6 million barrels per day of India's inbound crude, with supplies originating mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. The shift in sourcing over the past two months reflects a recalibration away from Russian crude toward traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, increasing India’s exposure to Hormuz-linked disruptions.

In a potential response, bypass infrastructure such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah could offer limited relief. However, these routes have finite capacity and are prioritized based on exporter strategies, meaning they can mitigate but not fully offset a major Hormuz disruption.

The disruption scenario would have immediate and significant implications for India and global oil markets, given that a large share of imports must traverse Hormuz. Analysts warn that even a temporary halt could push prices higher and reverberate across energy-sensitive sectors. The evolving risk underscores India's reliance on secure transit routes and the need for diversified sourcing and storage strategies as geopolitical tensions in the region persist.

As markets monitor the situation, the industry awaits developments on talks around the broader Middle East crisis, which have already influenced oil price trajectories and market sentiment. The coming weeks will test how quickly alternative corridors can ramp up and how resilient India’s oil import system can be in the face of renewed regional volatility.

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