BNP Paribas flags 2026 telecom boom on Jio IPO, tariff hikes ahead
BNP Paribas flags 2026 telecom boom on Jio IPO, tariff hikes ahead
Analysts see India's telecom sector boosting its weight in 2026 with Jio Platforms' IPO, tariff rises, and new growth drivers reshaping the market.
Analysts at BNP Paribas say India's telecom sector could become a bigger weight in benchmark indices in 2026, thanks to Jio Platforms' anticipated listing and positive moves among big players. The note highlights that after Jio's IPO, two large-listed operators would be in place, potentially lifting the sector's representation in indices.
The note points to an improving industry structure with strong revenue growth, EBITDA margin improvement, and moderating capex intensity. Even though valuations have expanded, BNP Paribas expects healthy double-digit returns driven by earnings growth.
On tariffs, BNP Paribas expects another mobile tariff hike by June-July 2026, following hikes in July 2024, November 2021, and November 2019. The report notes telcos are tapping growth drivers such as home broadband and data centres and bundling services like content, cloud, and AI to monetise.
Citing developments around Jio Platforms: preparations for the IPO are underway; BNP Paribas says it could be the largest IPO in 2026. They also call attention to relief granted to Vodafone Idea by the Supreme Court in November 2025, and DoT's decision to allow VIL an extra 10 years to pay AGR dues, which BNP Paribas says won't materially alter share trends in 2026.
In short, BNP Paribas recommends keeping an eye on the IPO and the movement of two major telcos once listed, as weightings in key indices could shift and attract more investors. The report signals a favorable long-term view for Indian telecom, balancing tariff dynamics with new revenue opportunities.
