Huge NASA satellite to crash back to Earth tonight, tiny ground risk

Almost 14 years after launch, a giant NASA satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere tonight. At approximately 11:45pm GMT, the Van Allen Probe A will descend, though the exact landing site is not known. Weighing about 600kg, the spacecraft is unlikely to hit anyone on the ground, with the risk estimated at roughly 1 in 4,200 (0.02%). NASA says most of the satellite should burn up during atmospheric passage, but some components could survive re-entry. The agency and Space Force will continue to monitor the descent and update predictions as needed.

The Van Allen Probes, launched in August 2012, were designed to study Earth's two permanent radiation belts. The data gathered has helped improve space weather forecasts and enhance understanding of how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and power grids on Earth.

Location and timing remain uncertain, but officials note that the second probe is not expected to re-enter before 2030. While space objects can pose risks, incidents of debris harming people or property on the ground are extremely rare. A notable historical example is a 2002 incident in which a piece of debris struck a child in northern China, causing minor injuries. The re-entry of Probe A is considered a routine event with a very low hazard footprint, and observers will watch for updates as re-entry progresses.

In short, the science advances in space weather remain important, and the re-entry is being tracked closely to ensure public safety while the mission's legacy continues to inform how we shield Earth from cosmic radiation and solar storms.

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