Virginia’s Mid-Decade Redistricting Passes, Looms Over House Seats

Virginia voters have approved a mid-decade redistricting plan, a move that could significantly bolster Democrats' prospects of securing four additional U.S. House seats in the upcoming November midterm elections. The constitutional amendment, endorsed by the electorate, circumvents a bipartisan redistricting commission. Instead, it permits the implementation of new districts drawn by Virginia’s Democratic-led General Assembly. However, this public mandate might not represent the final word on the matter. The state Supreme Court is currently reviewing the plan's legality, a case that could potentially render the referendum results null.

This Virginia redistricting referendum also marks a setback for President Donald Trump, who initiated a national redistricting push last year by urging Republican officials in Texas to redraw districts. His objective was to help Republicans gain more seats in the November elections and retain a slim House majority, particularly in the face of political headwinds that typically favor the party out of power during midterm elections. Congressional redistricting typically is done once a decade after each census. The Texas gambit led to a burst of redistricting nationwide. So far, Republicans believe they can win up to nine more House seats in newly redrawn districts in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Democrats think they can win up to five more seats in California, where voters approved a similar mid-decade redistricting effort last November, and one more seat under new court-imposed districts in Utah. Democrats hope to offset the rest of that gap in Virginia, where they decisively flipped 13 seats in the state House and won back the governor’s office last year. But the back-and-forth battle is continuing in Florida, where the Republican-led Legislature is to convene April 28 for a special session that could result in more redistricting moves.

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