India Eyes Russian Oil as Hormuz Tensions Roil Global Flows

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage linking the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, has become a flashpoint as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels of potential closure. That message sparked caution among traders, insurers, and shippers, prompting many to pause shipments through the chokepoint.

Amid the tension, India says it remains in a reasonably comfortable position on oil stockpiles, with current inventories enough to cover about six to eight weeks of consumption. Officials note there is roughly a week’s worth of fuel stocks, and a similar margin of crude in the country’s strategic petroleum reserves, offering a cushion should flows through Hormuz tighten further.

Industry sources say there is continued availability of Russian crude in Asian waters, including volumes in floating storage. Estimates put roughly 10 million barrels of Russian crude accessible in the region, even as refiners reduce intake. In February, India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian crude, roughly half of its 2025 peak, while February port loadings averaged around 0.7 million bpd after last year’s higher run. These dynamics underscore a potential pivot to Russian supplies should Hormuz disruptions persist.

To guard against any shortfall, India could draw on strategic reserves, accelerate spot procurement from non-Hormuz regions, and deepen supply contracts with alternative suppliers such as the United States, West Africa, and Latin America. Industry observers also point to the possibility of increased Russian crude imports as a longer-term hedge against geopolitical volatility in the Strait.

Beyond immediate stock management, the situation highlights the importance of diversified sourcing and contingency planning. While some routes and suppliers may become more costly or logistically complex, a multi-source approach could temper oil-price volatility and keep supply secure as energy markets reassess risk exposures.

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